S&P 500 Index
Low · quintile 1
| Window | Mean | Median | Positive | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1D | +0.29% | +0.19% | 67% | 3 |
| +5D | +0.98% | +1.96% | 67% | 3 |
| +1M | +2.55% | +2.55% | 100% | 1 |
Low sample: interpret these outcomes cautiously.
Release IntelligenceWorkspace current
week-ended-2026-10-17 · U.S. Department of Labor
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
One workspace for briefing, official publication status, market reaction, and comparable historical outcomes.
- Scheduled
- Oct 22 · 12:30:00 PM UTC
- Published
- Oct 22 · 12:30:00 PM UTC
- 0 ms late from schedule
- Available
- Oct 22 · 12:34:23 PM UTC
- 4.4 min after publication
- Market clock
- Publication time
- New York sessions
Before release
Release Briefing
Weekly claims are the fastest recurring signal of labor-market deterioration or resilience.
Analysis componentOpen five-year indicator analysis
- Event value
- 194,000 claims
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Current / event regime
- Low
- z -1.45
- Historical percentile
- 8th percentile
- Quintile 1 · five years
- Revision reliability
- High
- 91/100 · 11 releases
At release
Release Monitor
| Indicator | Actual | Prior initial | Prior revised | Release move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless ClaimsLevel · FRED fallback | 194,000 claims | 199,000 claims | 200,000 claims | -6,000 claims |
| Continuing ClaimsLevel · FRED fallback | 1,728,000 claims | 1,710,000 claims | 1,703,000 claims | +25,000 claims |
“Release move” is initial minus the revised prior when available, otherwise initial minus the prior print. It is not a consensus surprise.
After release
Market Reaction
S&P 500 and Nasdaq cumulative returns from the last regular close before publication to the +1D, +5D, and +1M trading sessions.
| Benchmark | +1D | +5D | +1M |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -1.44% | Pending | Pending |
| Nasdaq Composite | -2.86% | Pending | Pending |
Regime + percentile matched
Historical Analogues
Stored event history · 11 evaluated
3 matching releases
Nasdaq Composite
Low · quintile 1
| Window | Mean | Median | Positive | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1D | +0.16% | +0.04% | 67% | 3 |
| +5D | +1.05% | +2.52% | 67% | 3 |
| +1M | +2.83% | +2.83% | 100% | 1 |
Low sample: interpret these outcomes cautiously.
Stored release examples
week-ended-2026-08-15
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
Initial Jobless Claims: 207,000 claimsContinuing Claims: 1,796,000 claims
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 -0.87% · D5 +0.3%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 -1.0% · D5 +0.8%
week-ended-2026-10-03
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
Initial Jobless Claims: 197,000 claimsContinuing Claims: 1,716,000 claims
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 -0.47% · D5 -0.74%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 -1.25% · D5 -3.0%
week-ended-2026-08-01
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
Initial Jobless Claims: 200,000 claimsContinuing Claims: 1,799,000 claims
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 -0.18% · D5 +0.98%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 -0.06% · D5 +1.67%
week-ended-2026-09-19
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
Initial Jobless Claims: 198,000 claimsContinuing Claims: 1,712,000 claims
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 -0.02% · D5 -0.51%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 +0.01% · D5 -0.24%
week-ended-2026-10-10
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
Continuing Claims: 1,710,000 claimsInitial Jobless Claims: 199,000 claims
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 +0.33% · D5 -0.95%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 +0.08% · D5 -2.82%
Aggregate outcomes use only earlier releases of the selected component with the same as-of-release regime and five-year percentile quintile. The target event is excluded and pending trading horizons remain unavailable until enough closes exist.