S&P 500 Index
Low · quintile 1
| Window | Mean | Median | Positive | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1D | +0.67% | +0.67% | 100% | 2 |
| +5D | +2.0% | +2.0% | 100% | 2 |
| +1M | +2.55% | +2.55% | 100% | 1 |
Low sample: interpret these outcomes cautiously.
Release IntelligenceWorkspace current
week-ended-2026-10-03 · U.S. Department of Labor
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
One workspace for briefing, official publication status, market reaction, and comparable historical outcomes.
- Scheduled
- Oct 8 · 12:30:00 PM UTC
- Published
- Oct 8 · 12:30:00 PM UTC
- 0 ms late from schedule
- Available
- Oct 8 · 12:33:32 PM UTC
- 3.5 min after publication
- Market clock
- Publication time
- New York sessions
Before release
Release Briefing
Weekly claims are the fastest recurring signal of labor-market deterioration or resilience.
Analysis componentOpen five-year indicator analysis
- Event value
- 197,000 claims
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Current / event regime
- Low
- z -1.12
- Historical percentile
- 20th percentile
- Quintile 1 · five years
- Revision reliability
- High
- 100/100 · 9 releases
At release
Release Monitor
| Indicator | Actual | Prior initial | Prior revised | Release move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless ClaimsLevel · FRED fallback | 197,000 claims | 197,000 claims | 199,000 claims | -2,000 claims |
| Continuing ClaimsLevel · FRED fallback | 1,716,000 claims | 1,701,000 claims | 1,699,000 claims | +17,000 claims |
“Release move” is initial minus the revised prior when available, otherwise initial minus the prior print. It is not a consensus surprise.
After release
Market Reaction
S&P 500 and Nasdaq cumulative returns from the last regular close before publication to the +1D, +5D, and +1M trading sessions.
| Benchmark | +1D | +5D | +1M |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -0.47% | -1.06% | Pending |
| Nasdaq Composite | -1.25% | -3.07% | Pending |
Regime + percentile matched
Historical Analogues
Low-sample analogue history · 9 evaluated
2 matching releases
Nasdaq Composite
Low · quintile 1
| Window | Mean | Median | Positive | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1D | +0.87% | +0.87% | 100% | 2 |
| +5D | +3.1% | +3.1% | 100% | 2 |
| +1M | +2.83% | +2.83% | 100% | 1 |
Low sample: interpret these outcomes cautiously.
Stored release examples
week-ended-2026-08-15
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
Initial Jobless Claims: 207,000 claimsContinuing Claims: 1,796,000 claims
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 -0.87% · D5 +0.3%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 -1.0% · D5 +0.8%
week-ended-2026-08-01
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
Initial Jobless Claims: 200,000 claimsContinuing Claims: 1,799,000 claims
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 -0.18% · D5 +0.98%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 -0.06% · D5 +1.67%
week-ended-2026-08-29
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
Initial Jobless Claims: 207,000 claimsContinuing Claims: 1,775,000 claims
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 +1.06% · D5 -0.13%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 +1.4% · D5 +0.44%
week-ended-2026-09-19
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
Initial Jobless Claims: 198,000 claimsContinuing Claims: 1,712,000 claims
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 -0.02% · D5 -0.51%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 +0.01% · D5 -0.24%
week-ended-2026-09-05
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
Initial Jobless Claims: 207,000 claimsContinuing Claims: 1,765,000 claims
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 -0.58% · D5 +0.02%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 -0.65% · D5 +0.63%
Aggregate outcomes use only earlier releases of the selected component with the same as-of-release regime and five-year percentile quintile. The target event is excluded and pending trading horizons remain unavailable until enough closes exist.