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Release IntelligenceMarket reaction updating

week-ended-2026-10-21 · Federal Reserve

Factors Affecting Reserve Balances

One workspace for briefing, official publication status, market reaction, and comparable historical outcomes.

Scheduled
Oct 22 · 8:30:00 PM UTC
Published
Not reported
Available
Oct 22 · 8:30:37 PM UTC
37.5 sec after schedule (fallback basis)
Market clock
Scheduled time
New York sessions

Before release

Release Briefing

The Federal Reserve balance sheet and reserve components map shifts in banking-system liquidity.

Analysis componentOpen five-year indicator analysis
Event value
6,753,604 millions of dollars
Fed Balance Sheet
Current / event regime
Normal
z 0.94
Historical percentile
83th percentile
Quintile 5 · five years
Revision reliability
High
100/100 · 11 releases

Relevant market exposures

At release

Release Monitor

IndicatorActualPrior initialPrior revisedRelease move
Fed Balance SheetLevel · Official6,753,604 millions of dollars6,755,639 millions of dollars—-2,035 millions of dollars
Fed Balance SheetChange · Official-2,035 millions of dollars8,079 millions of dollars—-10,114 millions of dollars
Reserve BalancesLevel · Official2,962,607 millions of dollars3,022,140 millions of dollars—-59,533 millions of dollars
Reserve BalancesChange · Official-59,533 millions of dollars-7,519 millions of dollars—-52,014 millions of dollars
Treasury General AccountLevel · Official952,002 millions of dollars883,373 millions of dollars—+68,629 millions of dollars
Treasury General AccountChange · Official68,629 millions of dollars3,120 millions of dollars—+65,509 millions of dollars

“Release move” is initial minus the revised prior when available, otherwise initial minus the prior print. It is not a consensus surprise.

After release

Market Reaction

S&P 500 and Nasdaq cumulative returns from the last regular close before publication to the +1D, +5D, and +1M trading sessions.

Market sessions are still filling in

The page will update as daily closes become available.

Benchmark+1D+5D+1M
S&P 500 IndexPendingPendingPending
Nasdaq CompositePendingPendingPending

Regime + percentile matched

Historical Analogues

Low-sample analogue history · 11 evaluated

S&P 500 Index

Normal · quintile 5

0 matching releases
WindowMeanMedianPositiven
+1DNot availableNot availableNot available0
+5DNot availableNot availableNot available0
+1MNot availableNot availableNot available0

No earlier releases match both this regime and percentile quintile in the retained history.

Nasdaq Composite

Normal · quintile 5

0 matching releases
WindowMeanMedianPositiven
+1DNot availableNot availableNot available0
+5DNot availableNot availableNot available0
+1MNot availableNot availableNot available0

No earlier releases match both this regime and percentile quintile in the retained history.

Stored release examples

week-ended-2026-09-23

Factors Affecting Reserve Balances

65% match
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,747,704 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: 1,156 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 2,930,193 millions of dollars
S&P 500 Index
D0 +0.51% · D5 +0.24%
Nasdaq Composite
D0 +0.48% · D5 +0.93%
Open workspace

week-ended-2026-08-12

Factors Affecting Reserve Balances

57% match
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,759,955 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: 11,388 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 2,944,059 millions of dollars
S&P 500 Index
D0 -0.17% · D5 -1.6%
Nasdaq Composite
D0 -0.28% · D5 -2.32%
Open workspace

week-ended-2026-10-14

Factors Affecting Reserve Balances

51% match
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,755,639 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: 8,079 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 3,022,140 millions of dollars
Open workspace

week-ended-2026-08-26

Factors Affecting Reserve Balances

48% match
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,730,912 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: -14,787 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 2,924,936 millions of dollars
S&P 500 Index
D0 -0.25% · D5 -0.16%
Nasdaq Composite
D0 -0.52% · D5 -0.13%
Open workspace

week-ended-2026-09-16

Factors Affecting Reserve Balances

48% match
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,746,548 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: 5,929 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 3,013,794 millions of dollars
S&P 500 Index
D0 +0.17% · D5 +1.38%
Nasdaq Composite
D0 +0.39% · D5 +2.46%
Open workspace

Aggregate outcomes use only earlier releases of the selected component with the same as-of-release regime and five-year percentile quintile. The target event is excluded and pending trading horizons remain unavailable until enough closes exist.